The share of developing Asian countries in global oil imports may rise to 45-60% by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2023.
“Emerging market and developing economies in Asia currently account for just over 40% of global crude oil imports. More robust demand and limited domestic production potential cause this share to rise to 45-60% in 2050 in all scenarios,” reads the report.
The Middle East remains the largest crude oil exporter in all scenarios, but crude oil exports from North America and Latin America and the Caribbean rise from a 23% share of the total today to 30% in the STEPS in 2050.
The IEA sees opportunity to increase oil refining capacity in the coming years, mainly in developing countries in Asia and the Middle East however, this wave of capacity additions is likely to be the last, with limited capacity growth after 2030 projected in all scenarios. Transport fuels have historically been the main cause of demand growth in refining over the past few decades but this is set to end: in 2050, the share of gasoline in total demand drops from 25% today to 17% in the STEPS.
https://report.az/en/energy/iea-developing-asian-countries-to-account-for-up-to-60-of-global-oil-imports-by-2050/